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Banana plantations may benefit from climate change. Image: Shutterstock
There is a window for crop adaption against the effects of climate change, according to scientists.
In response to appeals from African leaders for new ways to deal with the effects of climate change on food production, the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture scientist Julian Ramirez, one of the authors of the studies.
The studies focused on sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and found considerable sensitivities to drought and heat in beans and potatoes, water-logging in cassava, and heat in bananas. Ramirez said the most important issues arise when many crops start losing suitability.
“Our studies show that decreases in suitability throughout the tropics are expected, because critical thresholds of adaptability are exceeded in most marginally suitable areas. About 15 per cent, 75 per cent, 10 per cent, and 50 per cent of areas with major losses ( >20 per cent) in climatic suitability were predicted for bananas, beans, cassava and potatoes, respectively.”
Despite this, the scientists identified opportunities for bananas in sub-tropical areas. They also predicted decreases between three and seven per cent for black sigatoka in most banana-growing environments.
Various management strategies for climate proofing were identified during the field research, including foliar irrigation to reduce temperatures and improvement of fertiliser and pesticide use. However, the studies suggested that tolerances to heat, cold, drought and/or water-logging are the key traits in the face of climate change.
While conventional breeding has already led to crop improvement in last 50 or 60 years, each breeding cycle takes between 10 to 20 years to be complete. Biotechnology, genome mapping and genetically-modified foods can aid adaption to climate change, as they can increase the rate of incorporation of new genetic traits to crops.
However, Ramirez said careful attention needs to be paid to the international regulations under which genetic improvements are done and disseminated worldwide. “Genetic stability and gene flow risks need to be properly assessed and documented before GM crops become a reality worldwide.”
Other studies have highlighted massive food security issues in the tropical world, such as sub-Saharan Africa, where most of the highly suitable areas are.
“However, one of our most important conclusions is that there is a window for adaptation. Our studies focus on 2030s, and whilst there are some negative impacts, such impacts are not as severe as they are by 2050s or 2080s, suggesting we have the opportunity for adaptation,” said Ramirez.